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基于多智能体行的农地非农化时空模拟与规划模型

张鸿辉1,曾永年1,谭荣2   

  1. 1. 中南大学信息物理工程学院
    2. 浙江大学公共管理学院
  • 收稿日期:2009-10-21 修回日期:2010-05-12 出版日期:2011-06-25 发布日期:2011-06-25
  • 通讯作者: 张鸿辉

A spatio-temporal simulation and planning model for farmland conversion based on multi-agent systems

  • Received:2009-10-21 Revised:2010-05-12 Online:2011-06-25 Published:2011-06-25

摘要: 已有的土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)模型或者城市增长模拟模型虽然能够模拟与预测农地的空间分布,但是不能解释引起农地非农化的各种行为体之间的相关关系,更不能对农地非农化进行合理的时空模拟与规划。遵循时间与空间规划效率最大化和可持续发展准则,基于多行为体系统和资源经济学理论构建了农地非农化时空模拟与规划模型 (Spatio-temporal simulation and planning of farmland conversion Model (STSPFCM)。该模型由外部环境、多行为体系统、决策框架组成,可实现影响农地非农化过程的行为体决策规则的时间与空间“显性”表达,模拟不同农地非农化规划准则下的农地非农化发展趋势,实现农地非农化的时空规划。以长沙、株洲、湘潭城市群的核心区域—长沙市为实验区,利用STSPFCM对2006-2020年长沙市农地非农化进行了时空模拟与规划。结果表明:STSPFCM能够为农地非农化时空规划提供有意义的辅助决策支持。

Abstract: Although current land-use and land-cover change(LUCC) and urban growth simulation models can simulate and predict spatial pattern of farmland, it’s not applicable for the interpretation of interaction between all kinds of agents during the process of farmland conversion and reasonable spatio-temporal simulation and planning of farmland conversion. Following the principles of maximal spatial and temporal planning efficiency as well as sustainable development, a spatio-temporal simulation and planning model for farmland conversion is developed with integration of multi-agent system and resource economics theory. The proposed model, which consists of some related components, i.e., external environment, multi-agent system, decision-making framework, can explicitly represent agents’ spatio-temporal decision-making behaviors and rules during the process of farmland conversion, simulate the developmental tendency of farmland conversion under different planning guidelines and provide auxiliary decision-making support for farmland resources planning. The proposed model is applied to the simulation and planning of farmland conversion in the core areas of Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangttan city cluster in 2006-2020, which is the national comprehensive reforms test areas of building resource-saving and environment-friendliness society in China. The simulation results and the analysis of ecosystem service loss under different planning guidelines show that the model is able to provide a spatial exploratory tool for spatio-temporal planning of farmland conversion.