测绘学报

• 庆祝宁津生院士80华诞学术论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GNSS/InSAR/GIS的活动断层地震危险性评估系统

许才军1,江国焰2,3,汪建军2,3,温扬茂3   

  1. 1. 武汉大学测绘学院
    2.
    3. 武汉大学
  • 收稿日期:2012-07-17 修回日期:2012-07-26 出版日期:2012-10-25 发布日期:2012-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 许才军

A Seismic Hazard Evaluating System for Active Faults based on GNSS/InSAR/GIS

  • Received:2012-07-17 Revised:2012-07-26 Online:2012-10-25 Published:2012-10-25
  • Contact: Caijun XU

摘要: 本文从GNSS、InSAR、重力、水准等多种大地测量资料联合确定活动断层地壳形变、应变和应力,以及与GIS相结合的角度出发,讨论了基于库仑破裂准则的活动断层地震危险性评估方法,系统阐述了活动断层地震危险性评估系统的设计。该系统主要利用各种大地测量数据联合确定活动断层区域的位移场,反演计算应变场、应力场、活动断层运动参数以及库仑应力;通过确定活动断层的临界应力值,建立地震危险性评估模型,评估可能发生地震的位置、最大震级、复发时间及其对应的概率;最后借助GIS实现断层区域的地质和构造环境、三维形变数据、应变场、应力场和地震危险性综合评价图的管理与可视化。本文最后讨论了所建系统的具体应用,讨论了汶川地震激发的同震静态库仑应力、应力扰动的持续时间和龙门山地区的地震活动率。

Abstract: We outlined the method to evaluate seismic hazards of active faults according to the coulomb failure criteria using the GNSS, InSAR, gravity, leveling and other kinds of geodetic observations. The design for the corresponding evaluating system was presented. The system use these geodetic data to determine the crustal deformation near active faults and implement the inversion for the strain, stress and motion parameters of active faults. Then fix the threshold values of stress of active faults from geological and seismic data and analyze the sites, maximum magnitudes, recurrence time and probability of potential earthquakes using the evaluating models. The system exhibits, interprets, and manages the evaluating results using GIS. As a demonstration, we discussed the coseismic coulomb stress triggered by 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the lasting time of stress disturbing and the earthquake rate of Longmenshan area after shock.