测绘学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (7): 1306-1316.doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2022.20220144

• 摄影测量学与遥感 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市洪涝实时预报研究:现状与挑战

林珲1,2, 吴贤宇1,3, 潘家祎1,2, 邹海波2   

  1. 1. 江西师范大学地理与环境学院, 江西 南昌 330022;
    2. 江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 江西 南昌 330022;
    3. 南昌工程学院水利与生态工程学院, 江西 南昌 330099
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-28 修回日期:2022-04-28 发布日期:2022-08-13
  • 通讯作者: 吴贤宇 E-mail:253475804@qq.com
  • 作者简介:林珲(1954-),男,教授,主要从事多云多雨环境遥感、虚拟地理环境、空间综合人文学与社会科学等方面研究。E-mail:huilin@cuhk.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(U1811464)

Real-time forecast of urban flood in China: past, present and future

LIN Hui1,2, WU Xianyu1,3, PAN Jiayi1,2, ZOU Haibo2   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research of Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China;
    3. The School of Hydraulic and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, China
  • Received:2022-02-28 Revised:2022-04-28 Published:2022-08-13
  • Supported by:
    The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1811464)

摘要: 全球气候变化和快速城市化打破了城市降水—汇水—排水原有的平衡,加剧了中国城市洪涝问题,造成了巨大的生命和财产损失。因此,亟须探索精确、高效的城市洪涝预报方法,提高城市防洪抗灾能力,降低灾害损失影响。然而,城市气象水文过程的复杂性使得城市洪涝实时预报研究面临诸多挑战。本文梳理了我国城市洪涝频发的原因,总结了国内城市洪涝实时预报研究在数据和模型方面的进展,指出了当前研究面临的问题和挑战,并对未来的发展趋势进行了展望,以期为我国城市防洪减灾研究和工作提供参考依据。

关键词: 城市洪涝, 实时预报, 情景模拟, 气象水文耦合, 多源数据

Abstract: Global climate change and rapid urbanization had broken the original balance of urban precipitation, catchment and drainage, and worsened the urban flood problem in China, resulting in huge loss of life and property. Therefore, it is urgent to explore accurate and efficient urban flood forecasting approaches to strengthen urban flood prediction and mitigate impacts of this disaster.However, the complexity of urban meteorological and hydrological processes makes the study of real-time urban flood prediction face many challenges.Based on detailed reviews, this paper summarizes the main causes of frequent urban flooding in China, and elucidates progress in data and models for real-time urban flood prediction, with descriptions of existing problems and challenges, and future developments.

Key words: urban flood, real-time forecast, scenario simulation, meteorological hydrological coupling, multi-source data

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