基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2022.20220293

测绘学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (10): 2216-2225.doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2022.20220293

基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究

赵彬如^1,2,3, 陈恩泽^1,2, 戴强^1,2,3, 朱少楠⁴, 张君^1,2,3

1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京 210023;
2. 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室(南京师范大学),江苏南京 210023;
3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京 210023;
4. 南京邮电大学地理与生物信息学院,江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2022-05-05 修回日期:2022-08-17 发布日期:2022-11-05
通讯作者: 戴强 E-mail:qd_gis@163.com
作者简介:赵彬如(1992—),女,博士,讲师,研究方向为降雨型滑坡的预测预警。E-mail:binruzhao@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(42101078);中国博士后科学基金(2020M681660)

Study on prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides based on hydro-meteorological threshold

ZHAO Binru^1,2,3, CHEN Enze^1,2, DAI Qiang^1,2,3, ZHU Shaonan⁴, ZHANG Jun^1,2,3

1. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment (Nanjing Normal University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210023, China;
3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China;
4. School of Geographic and Biologic Information, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2022-05-05 Revised:2022-08-17 Published:2022-11-05
Supported by:
The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42101078); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2020M681660)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前区域降雨型滑坡预测主要依赖降雨阈值开展,然而从降雨诱发滑坡机理可知,除降雨入渗导致的土壤含水量变化外,降雨入渗前的土壤含水量也是影响边坡失稳的重要因素,无法考虑降雨入渗前的土壤湿度情况,被认为是降雨阈值在滑坡预测中表现差的主要原因。针对这一问题,本文以四川省都江堰地区作为试验区域,提出考虑前期土壤湿度的区域降雨型滑坡预测思路,通过统计分析历史滑坡数据,构建了基于前期土壤湿度和近期降雨情况的水文-气象阈值模型,其中前期土壤湿度情况由改进的前期有效降雨指数刻画,近期降雨情况由最近的累积降雨量表示。试验结果表明:在试验区域的降雨型滑坡预测中,水文-气象阈值模型表现出较好的命中率和较低的误报率。本文构建的水文-气象阈值模型,可同时考虑前期土壤湿度和近期降雨对滑坡发生的影响,模型所需数据少、所用方法简单易操作且预测性能较优,适合在区域降雨型滑坡预测中推广应用。

关键词: 降雨型滑坡, 滑坡预测, 水文-气象阈值, 前期有效降雨指数

Abstract: The prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides mainly relies on the rainfall threshold. However, given the physical mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides, in addition to the changes in soil water content caused by rainfall infiltration, the soil water content before rainfall infiltration is also an important factor affecting slope instability. The inability to consider the soil moisture condition before rainfall infiltration is regarded as the main reason for the poor performance of the rainfall threshold in landslide predictions. Aiming at this problem, this study takes Dujiangyan district of Sichuan province as the experimental area, and proposes the idea of predicting regional rainfall-induced landslides by considering the antecedent soil moisture condition. Through statistical analysis of historical landslide records, we constructed a hydro-meteorological threshold based on the antecedent soil moisture and recent rainfall conditions, in which the antecedent soil moisture condition is described by the modified antecedent precipitation index, and the recent rainfall condition is characterized by the recent cumulated rainfall. Results show that the hydro-meteorological threshold performs well in terms of hit rate and false alarm rate in predicting rainfall-induced landslides at the experimental area. The constructed hydro-meteorological threshold can simultaneously consider the role of the antecedent soil moisture and recent rainfall in the occurrence of landslides, and has advantages of requiring fewer data, easy operation due to the simple method, and good prediction performances, which is suitable for application and promotion in the prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides.

Key words: rainfall-induced landslide, landslide prediction, hydro-meteorological threshold, antecedent precipitation index

中图分类号:

P954

赵彬如, 陈恩泽, 戴强, 朱少楠, 张君. 基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究[J]. 测绘学报, 2022, 51(10): 2216-2225.

ZHAO Binru, CHEN Enze, DAI Qiang, ZHU Shaonan, ZHANG Jun. Study on prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides based on hydro-meteorological threshold[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2022, 51(10): 2216-2225.

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基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究

Study on prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides based on hydro-meteorological threshold

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