鄱阳湖流域未来百年陆地水储量异常预测及干旱风险评估：基于CMIP6驱动的Transformer-GRU模型

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2026.20260016

测绘学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 721-738.doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2026.20260016

• 大地测量学与导航 • 上一篇

鄱阳湖流域未来百年陆地水储量异常预测及干旱风险评估：基于CMIP6驱动的Transformer-GRU模型

李洋¹^,²^,³(), 黄海军¹, 刘素兰¹, 吴晓辉¹, 刘琦¹, 庞琪沛¹, 吴云龙¹^,²^,³()

^1.中国地质大学（武汉）地理与信息工程学院，湖北　武汉　430074
^2.中国地质大学（武汉）区域生态过程与环境演变湖北省重点实验室，湖北　武汉　430074
^3.中国地质大学（武汉）信息技术湖北省重点学科实验室，湖北　武汉　430074

收稿日期:2026-01-14 修回日期:2026-03-16 发布日期:2026-05-11
通讯作者: 吴云龙 E-mail:liyang1105@cug.edu.cn;wuyunlong@cug.edu.cn
作者简介:李洋（2002—），男，硕士生，研究方向为大地测量数据智能化处理。　E-mail：liyang1105@cug.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2024YFF1308104);国家自然科学基金(42574073; 42274111)

Century-scale projection of terrestrial water storage anomaly and drought risk in the Poyang Lake Basin using a CMIP6-driven Transformer-GRU model

Yang LI¹^,²^,³(), Haijun HUANG¹, Sulan LIU¹, Xiaohui WU¹, Qi LIU¹, Qipei PANG¹, Yunlong WU¹^,²^,³()

^1.School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
^2.Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
^3.Hubei Key Laboratory of Information Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2026-01-14 Revised:2026-03-16 Published:2026-05-11
Contact: Yunlong WU E-mail:liyang1105@cug.edu.cn;wuyunlong@cug.edu.cn
About author:LI Yang (2002—), male, postgraduate, majors in intelligent processing of geodetic data. E-mail: liyang1105@cug.edu.cn
Supported by:
The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFF1308104);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42574073; 42274111)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱问题对人类社会的影响愈发强烈，准确预测未来陆地水储量异常（TWSA）数据对于水资源管理和干旱监测至关重要。本文融合GRACE/GRACE-FO卫星观测、重建的长时序TWSA数据与CMIP6多情景气候模拟数据，对鄱阳湖流域未来TWSA数据进行预测。为精准捕捉气候驱动与水储量变化间的复杂响应关系，本文提出了一种融合气候因子驱动的Transformer-GRU混合模型。该模型通过定制化的交叉注意力模块，以当前TWSA状态为引导，对降水、气温和潜在蒸散发（PET）及其若干滞后项计算注意力权重，并据此加权融合，得到用于TWSA预测的综合气候信号，从而实现对多源气候因子的动态加权耦合。模型经滚动窗口交叉验证与独立测试，展现了可信的预测精度（独立测试期相关系数r=0.87，RMSE=5.17 cm）。基于预测结果，进一步计算了鄱阳湖流域的陆地水储量干旱指数（WSDI），评估了不同排放情景下的干旱风险演变特征。结果表明，SSP5-8.5高排放情景下，干旱发生频率与强度均显著高于SSP2-4.5情景，揭示了高排放路径下鄱阳湖流域水文干旱加剧的潜在风险。本文为有限观测数据下开展未来百年的TWSA有效预测提供了一种可信的技术方案，可为鄱阳湖水资源适应策略提供科学参考。

关键词: 陆地水储量异常, 鄱阳湖流域, 情景驱动预测, Transformer, 干旱分析

Abstract:

The impact of drought on human society is becoming increasingly severe, making accurate prediction of future terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data crucial for water resource management and drought monitoring. This study integrates GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations, reconstructed long-term TWSA data, and CMIP6 multi-scenario climate model outputs to forecast future TWSA in the Poyang Lake Basin. To precisely capture the complex response relationship between climate drivers and water storage changes, we propose a hybrid Transformer-GRU model driven by climate factors. The model employs a customized cross-attention module that takes the current TWSA state as the guiding query to compute attention weights for precipitation, air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration (PET), together with their lagged terms, and then fuses these variables according to the learned weights to form an integrated climate signal for TWSA prediction, thereby achieving dynamic weighting and effective coupling of multi-source climate drivers. The model, validated through rolling-window cross-validation and independent testing, demonstrated reliable predictive accuracy (correlation coefficientr=0.87, RMSE=5.17 cm during the independent test period). Based on the prediction results, the water storage deficit index (WSDI) for the Poyang Lake Basin was calculated to assess the evolution of drought risk under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, both the frequency and intensity of droughts are significantly higher than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, revealing an elevated risk of intensified hydrological drought in the Poyang Lake Basin under a high-emission pathway. This research provides a credible technical solution for effective, century-scale TWSA forecasting with limited observational data, offering a scientific reference for water resource adaptation strategies in the Poyang Lake Basin.

Key words: TWSA, Poyang Lake Basin, scenario-driven prediction, Transformer, drought analysis

中图分类号:

P228

李洋, 黄海军, 刘素兰, 吴晓辉, 刘琦, 庞琪沛, 吴云龙. 鄱阳湖流域未来百年陆地水储量异常预测及干旱风险评估：基于CMIP6驱动的Transformer-GRU模型[J]. 测绘学报, 2026, 55(4): 721-738.

Yang LI, Haijun HUANG, Sulan LIU, Xiaohui WU, Qi LIU, Qipei PANG, Yunlong WU. Century-scale projection of terrestrial water storage anomaly and drought risk in the Poyang Lake Basin using a CMIP6-driven Transformer-GRU model[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2026, 55(4): 721-738.

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鄱阳湖流域未来百年陆地水储量异常预测及干旱风险评估：基于CMIP6驱动的Transformer-GRU模型

Century-scale projection of terrestrial water storage anomaly and drought risk in the Poyang Lake Basin using a CMIP6-driven Transformer-GRU model

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