Study on prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides based on hydro-meteorological threshold

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2022.20220293

Abstract

Abstract: The prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides mainly relies on the rainfall threshold. However, given the physical mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides, in addition to the changes in soil water content caused by rainfall infiltration, the soil water content before rainfall infiltration is also an important factor affecting slope instability. The inability to consider the soil moisture condition before rainfall infiltration is regarded as the main reason for the poor performance of the rainfall threshold in landslide predictions. Aiming at this problem, this study takes Dujiangyan district of Sichuan province as the experimental area, and proposes the idea of predicting regional rainfall-induced landslides by considering the antecedent soil moisture condition. Through statistical analysis of historical landslide records, we constructed a hydro-meteorological threshold based on the antecedent soil moisture and recent rainfall conditions, in which the antecedent soil moisture condition is described by the modified antecedent precipitation index, and the recent rainfall condition is characterized by the recent cumulated rainfall. Results show that the hydro-meteorological threshold performs well in terms of hit rate and false alarm rate in predicting rainfall-induced landslides at the experimental area. The constructed hydro-meteorological threshold can simultaneously consider the role of the antecedent soil moisture and recent rainfall in the occurrence of landslides, and has advantages of requiring fewer data, easy operation due to the simple method, and good prediction performances, which is suitable for application and promotion in the prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides.

Key words: rainfall-induced landslide, landslide prediction, hydro-meteorological threshold, antecedent precipitation index

CLC Number:

P954

ZHAO Binru, CHEN Enze, DAI Qiang, ZHU Shaonan, ZHANG Jun. Study on prediction of regional rainfall-induced landslides based on hydro-meteorological threshold[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2022, 51(10): 2216-2225.

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