降雨-库水位-滑坡形变时滞效应定量分析方法

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2025.20250147

测绘学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (9): 1687-1696.doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2025.20250147

降雨-库水位-滑坡形变时滞效应定量分析方法

唐菲菲¹^,²^,³(), 周俊哲¹^,²(), 王昌翰³^,⁴, 汪剑云³^,⁴, 周玉涛⁵, 郝亚飞⁶

^1.重庆交通大学智慧城市学院，重庆　400074
^2.山地城市时空信息重庆市重点实验室，重庆　400074
^3.自然资源部智能城市时空信息与装备工程技术创新中心，重庆　400020
^4.重庆市测绘科学技术研究院，重庆　400020
^5.重庆川东南工程勘察设计院有限公司，重庆　400015
^6.中国葛洲坝集团易普力股份有限公司，重庆　401122

收稿日期:2025-04-03 修回日期:2025-08-01 出版日期:2025-10-10 发布日期:2025-10-10
通讯作者: 周俊哲 E-mail:tangfeifei@cqjtu.edu.cn;jz_zhou0416@163.com
作者简介:唐菲菲（1980—），女，博士，教授，主要研究方向为灾害与设施结构安全监测预警方法。E-mail：tangfeifei@cqjtu.edu.cn
基金资助:
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0098)

Quantitative analysis method for the time lag effect of rainfall-reservoir water level-landslide deformation

Feifei TANG¹^,²^,³(), Junzhe ZHOU¹^,²(), Changhan WANG³^,⁴, Jianyun WANG³^,⁴, Yutao ZHOU⁵, Yafei HAO⁶

^1.Smart City College, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
^2.Chongqing Key Laboratory of Mountainous City Spatiotemporal Information, Chongqing 400074, China
^3.Intelligent City Spatiotemporal Information and Equipment Engineering Technology Innovation Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chongqing 400020, China
^4.Chongqing Academy of Surveying and Mapping, Chongqing 400020, China
^5.Chongqing Chuandongnan Engineering Survey and Design Institute, Chongqing 400015, China
^6.China Gezhouba Group Explosives Corporation Limited, Chongqing 401122, China

Received:2025-04-03 Revised:2025-08-01 Online:2025-10-10 Published:2025-10-10
Contact: Junzhe ZHOU E-mail:tangfeifei@cqjtu.edu.cn;jz_zhou0416@163.com
About author:TANG Feifei (1980—), female, PhD, professor, majors in disaster and facility structural safety monitoring and early warning methods. E-mail: tangfeifei@cqjtu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Key Project of Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0098)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对库岸滑坡形变在降雨和库水位作用下的时滞效应难以准确定量研判的问题，本文提出融合最大信息系数（MIC）与集对分析（SPA）的时滞效应定量分析方法（MIC-SPA），通过最大信息系数法客观量化降雨与库水位对滑坡形变的贡献权重，同时，基于SPA判别降雨-库水位变化趋势和滑坡形变的“同异反”联系度，利用权重系数和联系度系数进行线性回归构建滞后回归方程，进而实现时滞效应定量分析。本文以三峡库区某滑坡为例，得到库水位与降雨对滑坡形变的贡献权重分别为0.537与0.463，且当库水位快速下降（>0.6 m/d）时，滑坡前缘、中部、后部滞后期分别为5～6、2～3、1 d，实现滑坡分区精准时滞效应分析。与改进切线角划分的加速形变阶段进行对比验证发现，本文方法得到的滞后天数与形变加速日期相吻合，能为灾害预测提供科学指导。

关键词: 库岸滑坡, 降雨, 库水位, 最大信息系数, 集对分析, 时滞效应

Abstract:

Aiming at the challenge of accurately and quantitatively determining the time lag effect of reservoir bank landslide deformation under the combined influence of rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations, this paper proposes a quantitative analysis method (MIC-SPA) integrating the maximum information coefficient (MIC) and set pair analysis (SPA). The MIC method is utilized to objectively quantify the contribution weights of rainfall and reservoir water level to landslide deformation. Simultaneously, based on SPA, the “identity-discrepancy-contrary” connection degree between rainfall-reservoir water level trends and landslide deformation is evaluated. By incorporating the weight coefficients and connection degree coefficients into a linear regression formula, a lagged regression equation is established, thereby achieving quantitative analysis of the time lag effect. The proposed method is applied to a case study of a landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Results show that the contribution weights of reservoir water level and rainfall to landslide deformation are 0.537 and 0.463, respectively. Furthermore, analysis reveals that during rapid reservoir drawdown (>0.6 m/d), the lag periods for deformation at the landslide's front, middle, and rear sections are 5~6 days, 2~3 days, and 1 day, respectively, achieving precise zonal time lag analysis. Validation through comparison with the acceleration deformation phases identified by the modified tangent angle method demonstrates that the lag durations derived from this method align with the acceleration dates of deformation. The proposed approach provides scientific guidance for landslide hazard prediction.

Key words: reservoir bank landslide, rainfall, reservoir water level, maximum information coefficient, set pair analysis, time lag effect

中图分类号:

P237

唐菲菲, 周俊哲, 王昌翰, 汪剑云, 周玉涛, 郝亚飞. 降雨-库水位-滑坡形变时滞效应定量分析方法[J]. 测绘学报, 2025, 54(9): 1687-1696.

Feifei TANG, Junzhe ZHOU, Changhan WANG, Jianyun WANG, Yutao ZHOU, Yafei HAO. Quantitative analysis method for the time lag effect of rainfall-reservoir water level-landslide deformation[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2025, 54(9): 1687-1696.

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类别	库水位波动速率/（m/d）	位移速率/（mm/d）	月累积降雨增加量/mm
下降→稳定	－0.26	－0.3	3.1
稳定→上升	0.275	0.3	12.5

滑坡分区	监测点	库水位下降速率V/（m/d）	滞后天数/d
前缘	GNSS01	V≤0.45	10～11
		0.45<V≤0.6	7
		0.6<V	5
	GNSS02	V≤0.45	10～11
		0.45<V≤0.6	9
		0.6<V	5
	GNSS03	V≤0.45	10～12
		0.45<V≤0.6	8
		0.6<V	6
中部	GNSS04	V≤0.45	6～7
		0.45<V≤0.6	3
		0.6<V	2
	GNSS05	V≤0.45	5
		0.45<V≤0.6	4
		0.6<V	2
	GNSS06	V≤0.45	5～6
		0.45<V≤0.6	3
		0.6<V	3
后部	GNSS07	V≤0.45	3～4
		0.45<V≤0.6	2
		0.6<V	1
	GNSS08	V≤0.45	3
		0.45<V≤0.6	2
		0.6<V	1

降雨-库水位-滑坡形变时滞效应定量分析方法

Quantitative analysis method for the time lag effect of rainfall-reservoir water level-landslide deformation

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滑坡状态	库水位状态			累积降雨状态
滑坡状态	上升	稳定	下降	上升	稳定	下降
上升	反	异	同	同	异	反
稳定	异	同	异	异	同	异
下降	同	异	反	反	异	同

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