降雨和库水位变动联合作用下滑坡位移加权反分析及监测预警方法

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2024.20230009

测绘学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (5): 917-932.doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2024.20230009

降雨和库水位变动联合作用下滑坡位移加权反分析及监测预警方法

袁维¹(), 籍晓蕾¹, 王东坡², 管凯歌¹, 裴子豪¹, 钟辉亚³, 唐佳³, 孙瑞峰⁴(), 王伟¹, 郑贺民⁵, 郭帅杰⁵, 李红旭⁵

^1.石家庄铁道大学，河北　石家庄　050043
^2.成都理工大学，四川　成都　610059
^3.中南勘测设计研究院有限公司，湖南　长沙　410014
^4.中铁十七局集团城市建设有限公司，贵州　贵阳　550029
^5.中国铁路设计集团有限公司，天津　300308

收稿日期:2023-01-31 修回日期:2024-05-06 发布日期:2024-06-19
通讯作者: 孙瑞峰 E-mail:yuanweisuper001@126.com;18608663360@zt17.cn
作者简介:袁维（1986—），男，博士，副教授，研究方向为地质灾害安全防控。E-mail：yuanweisuper001@126.com
基金资助:
河北省重点研发计划(22375402D);贵州省科技支撑计划(黔科合支撑[2024]一般145);湖南省自然科学基金(2022JJ30641)

Landslide displacement weighted inverse analysis and monitoring and warning method under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level

Wei YUAN¹(), Xiaolei JI¹, Dongpo WANG², Kaige GUAN¹, Zihao PEI¹, Huiya ZHONG³, Jia TANG³, Ruifeng SUN⁴(), Wei WANG¹, Hemin ZHENG⁵, Shuaijie GUO⁵, Hongxu LI⁵

^1.Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang 050043, China
^2.Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
^3.Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limited, Changsha 410014, China
^4.China Railway 17th Bureau Group Urban Construction Co., Ltd., Guiyang 550029, China
^5.China Railway Design Corporation, Tianjin 300308, China

Received:2023-01-31 Revised:2024-05-06 Published:2024-06-19
Contact: Ruifeng SUN E-mail:yuanweisuper001@126.com;18608663360@zt17.cn
About author:YUAN Wei (1986—), male, PhD, associate professor, majors in safety prevention and control of geological disaster. E-mail: yuanweisuper001@126.com
Supported by:
Hebei Province Key Research and Development Program(22375402D);The Science and Technology Support Plan of Guizhou Province(黔科合支撑[2024]一般145);The Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2022JJ30641)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

降雨和库水位变动是诱发大型库岸滑坡体持续变形甚至失稳的主要外在因素。针对以上两种因素联合作用下滑坡体的变形特征，本文提出一种基于多源数据的“反演-评估-融合-预警”四步式滑坡监测预警方法。该方法采用趋势项位移进行力学参数反演，有效避免了降雨、库水位变动等外在因素对反演结果的影响。同时，采用熵权值构建了反演目标函数，借此考虑了不同位置监测点对反演结果的影响程度。此外，考虑了滑坡体自身的地质条件和坡体结构对监测预警的影响，综合运用安全系数和综合变形速率构建了具有地质和力学基础的预警模型。采用本文方法对贵州三板溪水电站东岭信滑坡体进行了力学参数反演和监测预警，结果表明：该滑坡体整个监测期间的安全系数在1.25～1.70之间波动，整体状态呈下降趋势，基于安全系数的角度判断其尚处于稳定状态；综合变形速率呈现上、下波动趋势，与安全系数在变化规律上具有高度的相关性，两者可以从整体上表征该滑坡体在降雨和库水位变动联合作用下稳定性的演进过程；当前监测时刻点的综合变形速率是0.059 9，根据分级预警模型判断此滑坡体当前处于稳定变形阶段（Ⅰ级预警），与安全系数的判断结果具有一致性。

关键词: 滑坡体, 监测预警, 参数反演, 降雨, 库水位变动

Abstract:

Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are the main external factors that induce continuous deformation and even instability of large reservoir bank landslide. Aiming at the deformation characteristics of landslide under the combined action of the above two factors, a four-step landslide monitoring and warning method based on multi-source heterogeneous data is proposed in this study. In this method, the trend term displacement is used to invert mechanical parameters, which effectively avoids the influence of external factors such as rainfall and reservoir water level change on the inversion results. Meanwhile, the entropy weight is used to construct the inversion objective function, which takes into account the influence of monitoring points at different locations on the inversion results. In addition, the influence of the geological conditions of the slope itself and the slope structure on the monitoring and early warning is considered. Besides, considering the influence of geological conditions and slope structure on monitoring and warning, a warning model with geological and mechanical basis was established by comprehensive use of safety factor and comprehensive deformation rate. Finally, mechanical parameter inversion and monitoring and early warning are carried out for Donglingxin landslide of Sanbanxi hydropower station, Guizhou province by virtue of the proposed method in this study. The results show that the safety factor of the landslide fluctuates between 1.25 and 1.70 during the whole monitoring period, and the overall state is declining. Based on the safety factor, it is still in a stable state. The comprehensive deformation rate presents an upward and downward fluctuation trend, which is highly correlated with the variation law of the safety factor. Both of them can represent the evolution process of the stability of the landslide under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level. The comprehensive deformation rate of the current monitoring moment point is 0.059 9. According to the hierarchical warning model, the landslide is currently in the stable deformation stage (level I warning), which is consistent with the judgment result of the safety factor.

Key words: landslide, monitoring and early warning, parametric inversion, rainfall, variation of reservoir water level

中图分类号:

P227

袁维, 籍晓蕾, 王东坡, 管凯歌, 裴子豪, 钟辉亚, 唐佳, 孙瑞峰, 王伟, 郑贺民, 郭帅杰, 李红旭. 降雨和库水位变动联合作用下滑坡位移加权反分析及监测预警方法[J]. 测绘学报, 2024, 53(5): 917-932.

Wei YUAN, Xiaolei JI, Dongpo WANG, Kaige GUAN, Zihao PEI, Huiya ZHONG, Jia TANG, Ruifeng SUN, Wei WANG, Hemin ZHENG, Shuaijie GUO, Hongxu LI. Landslide displacement weighted inverse analysis and monitoring and warning method under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2024, 53(5): 917-932.

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参考文献 25

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滑坡稳定状态	滑坡稳定系数F_os
不稳定	F_os<1.0
欠稳定	1.0≤F_os<1.05
基本稳定	1.05≤F_os<1.25
稳定	F_os≥1.25

岩土体分区	容重/(kN/m³)	弹性模量/MPa	泊松比	黏结力/(kPa)	摩擦角/(°)
①	20.5	100～200	0.35～0.45	17～37	22～30
②	22	500～2000	0.25～0.35	140～200	25～35
③	20	100～200	0.35～0.45	20～40	18～28
④	25	10 000	0.2	9000	50

监测点	a₀	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	a₅	a₆	a₇	a₈	a₉	a₁₀	a₁₁	a₁₂
DLXG01	2 019.6	－0.194 8	－401.62	－1.510 6	－1.418 8	－0.077 5	－541.82	－1.281 1	－0.853 7	－1.204 6	－559.77	－3.933 1	－24.442 2
DLXG02	7 586.4	－1.813 9	－1 885.22	－10.932 8	－30.302 5	－0.187 1	－1 939.12	－4.713 8	－26.814 7	－2.870 4	－2 029.77	－13.738 6	－47.836 7
DLXG03	9 514.8	－2.281 5	－2 367.13	－13.918 8	－38.269 9	－0.233 3	－2 437.83	－5.893 3	－32.837 1	－3.655 1	－2 528.73	－17.580 0	－60.511 1
DLXG05	8 261.4	－1.989 9	－2 069.1	－12.325 5	－33.319 4	－0.205 9	－2 155.72	－5.144 0	－29.378 2	－3.031 3	－2 244.82	－15.010 3	－50.143 5
DLXG06	8 927.8	－2.139 3	－2 241.06	－13.469 9	－35.840 9	－0.217 8	－2 347.48	－5.591 5	－30.998 8	－3.315 5	－2 406.88	－16.452 8	－54.882 6
DLXG07	4 309.1	－1.062 3	－1 266.25	－5.362 9	－12.527 7	－0.094 5	－1 092.71	－3.669 8	－10.072 0	－1.467 75	－1 092.81	－12.242 0	－27.199 2
DLXG08	6 290.6	－1.382 9	－1 513.15	－8.821 6	－23.070 6	－0.174 3	－1 641.20	－3.917 3	－20.549 0	－2.502 8	－1 638.84	－11.124 5	－42.810 0
DLXG09	1 324.09	－0.156 9	－318.097	－1.137 7	－0.675 9	－0.048 2	－335.70	－0.903 3	0.037 2	－0.770 5	－343.24	－3.225 2	－15.781 1
DLXG011	6 291.9	－1.403 85	－1 498.87	－8.531 2	－22.804 9	－0.183 7	－1617	－3.784 2	－20.238 7	－2.546 2	－1 695.75	－11.169 9	－43.155
DLXG012	3 930.7	－0.697 8	－798.04	－4.254 5	－10.730 5	－0.156 0	－976.79	－2.227 4	－9.566 5	－1.895 1	－1 004.48	－6.772 0	－34.162 4
DLXG013	3 407.6	－0.568 1	－638.04	－3.302 4	－8.131 1	－0.143	－842.06	－1.896 4	－7.275 4	－1.750 2	－854.50	－5.826 7	－32.249 9
DLXG014	2 781.2	－0.397 4	－519.16	－2.533 8	－5.400 3	－0.108 5	－720.80	－1.545 7	－3.846 5	－1.532 8	－748.29	－5.198 1	－29.370 0

降雨和库水位变动联合作用下滑坡位移加权反分析及监测预警方法

Landslide displacement weighted inverse analysis and monitoring and warning method under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level

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试验序号	①含碎、块石粉质黏土				②块、碎石夹粉质黏土				③滑带
试验序号	E₁/MPa	μ₁	c₁/kPa	φ₁/(°)	E₂/MPa	μ₂	c₂/kPa	φ₂/(°)	E₃/MPa	μ₃	c₃/kPa	φ₃/(°)
1	100	0.35	17	22	500	0.25	140	25	100	0.35	20	18
2	100	0.35	17	22	1250	0.3	170	30	150	0.4	30	23
3	100	0.35	17	22	2000	0.35	200	35	200	0.45	40	28
4	100	0.4	27	26	500	0.25	140	30	150	0.4	40	28
5	100	0.4	27	26	1250	0.3	170	35	200	0.45	20	18
6	100	0.4	27	26	2000	0.35	200	25	100	0.35	30	23
7	100	0.45	37	30	500	0.25	140	35	200	0.45	30	23
8	100	0.45	37	30	1250	0.3	170	25	100	0.35	40	28
9	100	0.45	37	30	2000	0.35	200	30	150	0.4	20	18
10	150	0.35	27	30	500	0.3	200	25	150	0.45	20	23
11	150	0.35	27	30	1250	0.35	140	30	200	0.35	30	28
12	150	0.35	27	30	2000	0.25	170	35	100	0.4	40	18
13	150	0.4	37	22	500	0.3	200	30	200	0.35	40	18
14	150	0.4	37	22	1250	0.35	140	35	100	0.4	20	23
15	150	0.4	37	22	2000	0.25	170	25	150	0.45	30	28
16	150	0.45	17	26	500	0.3	200	35	100	0.4	30	28
17	150	0.45	17	26	1250	0.35	140	25	150	0.45	40	18
18	150	0.45	17	26	2000	0.25	170	30	200	0.35	20	23
19	200	0.35	37	26	500	0.35	170	25	200	0.4	20	28
20	200	0.35	37	26	1250	0.25	200	30	100	0.45	30	18
21	200	0.35	37	26	2000	0.3	140	35	150	0.35	40	23
22	200	0.4	17	30	500	0.35	170	30	100	0.45	40	23
23	200	0.4	17	30	1250	0.25	200	35	150	0.35	20	28
24	200	0.4	17	30	2000	0.3	140	25	200	0.4	30	18
25	200	0.45	27	22	500	0.35	170	35	150	0.35	30	18
26	200	0.45	27	22	1250	0.25	200	25	200	0.4	40	23
27	200	0.45	27	22	2000	0.3	140	30	100	0.45	20	28

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