Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard mapping with consideration of slope occurrence environment

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2023.20220213

Abstract

Abstract: Displacement model is a significant method for probabilistic seismic landslide hazard assessment. However, as the main inputs of the displacement model, the physical-mechanical parameters of rock mass only consider the lithological differences, while the spatial heterogeneous of the rock mass strength resulted from the slope occurrence environment was ignored before, which affects the reliability of the seismic landslide hazard assessment. Based on analysis to co-seismic landslides resulted from Wenchuan earthquake and study on the weighting of impact factors, this paper presents a new method for probabilistic seismic landslide hazard assessment with consideration of slope occurrence environment and develops a group of ArcGIS-based modules for probabilistic seismic landslide hazard mapping. Taking Kangding as an experimental example, the reliability of the proposed method is verified by using the landslides from remote sensing visual interpretation and field survey. Finally, according to the peak ground acceleration under different earthquake scenarios provided by the fifth-generation seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China, the permanent seismic displacements of Kangding under different earthquake scenarios are computed, and the seismic landslide hazards are mapped. The results show that under the frequently encountered earthquake scenario, some areas in Kangding are high seismic landslide hazard areas mainly affected by the tectonic environment and rainfalls; while under the rarely encountered earthquake scenario, the area seriously affected by earthquakes in Kangding increases significantly and shows an obvious spatially clustering distribution, especially in the vicinity of Kangding and where along Kangding-Luding segment of national highway G318. Besides, the uncertainty of seismic landslide hazard mapping caused by rock mass strength difference is quantified and analyzed, which shows that rock mass strength is critical for the uncertainty of assessment results. For application, suitable rock mass strengths should be selected for different scenarios to conduct probabilistic seismic landslide hazard assessment and mapping. The presented method expands the GIS application in geohazard mapping, which is of general adaptability and could be improved further. The experimental results are valuable for future land planning and utilization in Kangding, and for prevention of earthquake-induced landslide and safeguard of Sichuan-Tibet railway.

Key words: displacement model, occurrence environment, probabilistic seismic landslide, ArcGIS, landslide hazard mapping

CLC Number:

P237

CHEN Shuai, MIAO Zelang, WU Lixin. Probabilistic seismic landslide hazard mapping with consideration of slope occurrence environment[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2023, 52(9): 1548-1561.

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