Landslide displacement weighted inverse analysis and monitoring and warning method under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2024.20230009

Abstract

Abstract:

Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are the main external factors that induce continuous deformation and even instability of large reservoir bank landslide. Aiming at the deformation characteristics of landslide under the combined action of the above two factors, a four-step landslide monitoring and warning method based on multi-source heterogeneous data is proposed in this study. In this method, the trend term displacement is used to invert mechanical parameters, which effectively avoids the influence of external factors such as rainfall and reservoir water level change on the inversion results. Meanwhile, the entropy weight is used to construct the inversion objective function, which takes into account the influence of monitoring points at different locations on the inversion results. In addition, the influence of the geological conditions of the slope itself and the slope structure on the monitoring and early warning is considered. Besides, considering the influence of geological conditions and slope structure on monitoring and warning, a warning model with geological and mechanical basis was established by comprehensive use of safety factor and comprehensive deformation rate. Finally, mechanical parameter inversion and monitoring and early warning are carried out for Donglingxin landslide of Sanbanxi hydropower station, Guizhou province by virtue of the proposed method in this study. The results show that the safety factor of the landslide fluctuates between 1.25 and 1.70 during the whole monitoring period, and the overall state is declining. Based on the safety factor, it is still in a stable state. The comprehensive deformation rate presents an upward and downward fluctuation trend, which is highly correlated with the variation law of the safety factor. Both of them can represent the evolution process of the stability of the landslide under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level. The comprehensive deformation rate of the current monitoring moment point is 0.059 9. According to the hierarchical warning model, the landslide is currently in the stable deformation stage (level I warning), which is consistent with the judgment result of the safety factor.

Key words: landslide, monitoring and early warning, parametric inversion, rainfall, variation of reservoir water level

CLC Number:

P227

Wei YUAN, Xiaolei JI, Dongpo WANG, Kaige GUAN, Zihao PEI, Huiya ZHONG, Jia TANG, Ruifeng SUN, Wei WANG, Hemin ZHENG, Shuaijie GUO, Hongxu LI. Landslide displacement weighted inverse analysis and monitoring and warning method under the combined action of rainfall and reservoir water level[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2024, 53(5): 917-932.

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滑坡稳定状态	滑坡稳定系数F_os
不稳定	F_os<1.0
欠稳定	1.0≤F_os<1.05
基本稳定	1.05≤F_os<1.25
稳定	F_os≥1.25

岩土体分区	容重/(kN/m³)	弹性模量/MPa	泊松比	黏结力/(kPa)	摩擦角/(°)
①	20.5	100～200	0.35～0.45	17～37	22～30
②	22	500～2000	0.25～0.35	140～200	25～35
③	20	100～200	0.35～0.45	20～40	18～28
④	25	10 000	0.2	9000	50

试验序号	①含碎、块石粉质黏土				②块、碎石夹粉质黏土				③滑带
试验序号	E₁/MPa	μ₁	c₁/kPa	φ₁/(°)	E₂/MPa	μ₂	c₂/kPa	φ₂/(°)	E₃/MPa	μ₃	c₃/kPa	φ₃/(°)
1	100	0.35	17	22	500	0.25	140	25	100	0.35	20	18
2	100	0.35	17	22	1250	0.3	170	30	150	0.4	30	23
3	100	0.35	17	22	2000	0.35	200	35	200	0.45	40	28
4	100	0.4	27	26	500	0.25	140	30	150	0.4	40	28
5	100	0.4	27	26	1250	0.3	170	35	200	0.45	20	18
6	100	0.4	27	26	2000	0.35	200	25	100	0.35	30	23
7	100	0.45	37	30	500	0.25	140	35	200	0.45	30	23
8	100	0.45	37	30	1250	0.3	170	25	100	0.35	40	28
9	100	0.45	37	30	2000	0.35	200	30	150	0.4	20	18
10	150	0.35	27	30	500	0.3	200	25	150	0.45	20	23
11	150	0.35	27	30	1250	0.35	140	30	200	0.35	30	28
12	150	0.35	27	30	2000	0.25	170	35	100	0.4	40	18
13	150	0.4	37	22	500	0.3	200	30	200	0.35	40	18
14	150	0.4	37	22	1250	0.35	140	35	100	0.4	20	23
15	150	0.4	37	22	2000	0.25	170	25	150	0.45	30	28
16	150	0.45	17	26	500	0.3	200	35	100	0.4	30	28
17	150	0.45	17	26	1250	0.35	140	25	150	0.45	40	18
18	150	0.45	17	26	2000	0.25	170	30	200	0.35	20	23
19	200	0.35	37	26	500	0.35	170	25	200	0.4	20	28
20	200	0.35	37	26	1250	0.25	200	30	100	0.45	30	18
21	200	0.35	37	26	2000	0.3	140	35	150	0.35	40	23
22	200	0.4	17	30	500	0.35	170	30	100	0.45	40	23
23	200	0.4	17	30	1250	0.25	200	35	150	0.35	20	28
24	200	0.4	17	30	2000	0.3	140	25	200	0.4	30	18
25	200	0.45	27	22	500	0.35	170	35	150	0.35	30	18
26	200	0.45	27	22	1250	0.25	200	25	200	0.4	40	23
27	200	0.45	27	22	2000	0.3	140	30	100	0.45	20	28

监测点	a₀	a₁	a₂	a₃	a₄	a₅	a₆	a₇	a₈	a₉	a₁₀	a₁₁	a₁₂
DLXG01	2 019.6	－0.194 8	－401.62	－1.510 6	－1.418 8	－0.077 5	－541.82	－1.281 1	－0.853 7	－1.204 6	－559.77	－3.933 1	－24.442 2
DLXG02	7 586.4	－1.813 9	－1 885.22	－10.932 8	－30.302 5	－0.187 1	－1 939.12	－4.713 8	－26.814 7	－2.870 4	－2 029.77	－13.738 6	－47.836 7
DLXG03	9 514.8	－2.281 5	－2 367.13	－13.918 8	－38.269 9	－0.233 3	－2 437.83	－5.893 3	－32.837 1	－3.655 1	－2 528.73	－17.580 0	－60.511 1
DLXG05	8 261.4	－1.989 9	－2 069.1	－12.325 5	－33.319 4	－0.205 9	－2 155.72	－5.144 0	－29.378 2	－3.031 3	－2 244.82	－15.010 3	－50.143 5
DLXG06	8 927.8	－2.139 3	－2 241.06	－13.469 9	－35.840 9	－0.217 8	－2 347.48	－5.591 5	－30.998 8	－3.315 5	－2 406.88	－16.452 8	－54.882 6
DLXG07	4 309.1	－1.062 3	－1 266.25	－5.362 9	－12.527 7	－0.094 5	－1 092.71	－3.669 8	－10.072 0	－1.467 75	－1 092.81	－12.242 0	－27.199 2
DLXG08	6 290.6	－1.382 9	－1 513.15	－8.821 6	－23.070 6	－0.174 3	－1 641.20	－3.917 3	－20.549 0	－2.502 8	－1 638.84	－11.124 5	－42.810 0
DLXG09	1 324.09	－0.156 9	－318.097	－1.137 7	－0.675 9	－0.048 2	－335.70	－0.903 3	0.037 2	－0.770 5	－343.24	－3.225 2	－15.781 1
DLXG011	6 291.9	－1.403 85	－1 498.87	－8.531 2	－22.804 9	－0.183 7	－1617	－3.784 2	－20.238 7	－2.546 2	－1 695.75	－11.169 9	－43.155
DLXG012	3 930.7	－0.697 8	－798.04	－4.254 5	－10.730 5	－0.156 0	－976.79	－2.227 4	－9.566 5	－1.895 1	－1 004.48	－6.772 0	－34.162 4
DLXG013	3 407.6	－0.568 1	－638.04	－3.302 4	－8.131 1	－0.143	－842.06	－1.896 4	－7.275 4	－1.750 2	－854.50	－5.826 7	－32.249 9
DLXG014	2 781.2	－0.397 4	－519.16	－2.533 8	－5.400 3	－0.108 5	－720.80	－1.545 7	－3.846 5	－1.532 8	－748.29	－5.198 1	－29.370 0