Detection of atmospheric density in the thermosphere and satellite orbital decay variations triggered by different intensities of geomagnetic storms using the GRACE-FO satellite

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2025.20240239

Abstract

Abstract:

The current solar activity is at its peak, leading to frequent geomagnetic storms, the resulting variations in the thermospheric atmospheric density are crucial for orbit prediction and space flight safety of low-earth orbit satellites. The high-precision accelerometers carried by gravity satellites can effectively detect variations in thermospheric atmospheric density at satellite altitude. Based on data from the GRACE-FO (gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on) gravity satellite accelerometer, we inverse the thermospheric density during four geomagnetic storm events near the vernal equinox from 2019 to 2023. We conducted a quantitative analysis for the first time on the impact of geomagnetic storms of different intensities on thermospheric density at satellite altitude and satellite orbits, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of the density variations are investigated by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions. The results are summarized as follows: ① The GRACE-FO satellite accelerometer shows a significant response to moderate to severe geomagnetic storms, with the X-axis accelerometer data, thermospheric density, and satellite orbit decay rate exhibiting “peak” phenomena. ② In the temporal dimension, variations in thermospheric density are closely correlated with the Dst index. In the spatial dimension, thermospheric density variations are generally higher in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, and the variations become more pronounced with increasing latitude. ③ Thermospheric density variations in the sunlit region are more significantly affected by geomagnetic storms, with atmospheric temperature being one of the key factors influencing the thermospheric density variations in the sunlit region. Therefore, this study provides valuable insights into understanding the spatio-temporal variations in thermospheric density at satellite altitude and satellite orbit decay during geomagnetic storms of varying intensities, particularly around the equinox.

Key words: GRACE-FO satellite, thermospheric density, satellite orbit decay, geomagnetic storm intensity, empirical orthogonal function

CLC Number:

P228

Haichao WANG, Changqing WANG, Dinghao GUO, Zitong ZHU, Wei FENG, Min ZHONG. Detection of atmospheric density in the thermosphere and satellite orbital decay variations triggered by different intensities of geomagnetic storms using the GRACE-FO satellite[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2025, 54(2): 248-261.

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最小Dst值范围/nt	磁暴等级	对应时间
-50~-30	弱磁暴	2019年4月8日—4月13日（Dst_min=-34 nt）
-100~-50	中磁暴	2022年4月12日—4月17日（Dst_min=-81 nt）
-200~-100	强磁暴	2023年3月21日—3月26日（Dst_min=-163 nt）
-350~-200	烈磁暴	2023年4月21日—4月26日（Dst_min=-212 nt）
<-350	巨磁暴	无

非保守力	建模所需数据	数据源或模型
	卫星质量	初值（601.214 kg）
	卫星位置	GNV文件
	卫星姿态	SCA文件
大气阻力	大气阻尼系数	Sentman稀薄空气动力学方程^[33]
	大气阻尼系数	能量调节系数^[34]
	大气密度	NRLMSIS 2.0经验模型^[35]
	卫星与大气分子之间的相对速度	HWM14模型^[36]
	卫星表面信息	Macro模型^[31]
	太阳、月球位置	JPLDE405星历
	卫星质量	初值（601.214 kg）
太阳光压	卫星位置	GNV文件
太阳光压	卫星姿态	SCA文件
	阴影因子	SOLAARS-CF模型^[37]
	卫星表面信息	Macro模型
	太阳位置	JPLDE405星历
	地球反射率及发射率	CERES模型^[38]
地球反照压	卫星质量	初值（601.214 kg）
地球反照压	卫星位置	GNV文件
	卫星姿态	SCA文件
	卫星表面信息	Macro模型

磁暴等级	最小Dst值/nt	加速度计均值变化/（m·s^-2）	大气密度均值变化/（kg·m^-3）	卫星轨道衰减率均值变化/（m·d^-1）
弱磁暴	-34	2.38×10^-9	2.10×10^-14	0.50
中磁暴	-81	2.25×10^-8	1.38×10^-13	4.74
强磁暴	-163	7.50×10^-8	4.63×10^-13	13.55
烈磁暴	-212	9.21×10^-8	6.11×10^-13	17.40

空间模态	特征值	方差贡献率	累计方差贡献率	误差上限	误差下限
1	1.26×10^-21	0.934 4	0.934 4	1.49×10^-21	1.04×10^-21
2	5.51×10^-23	0.040 8	0.975 2	6.49×10^-23	4.54×10^-23
3	1.10×10^-23	0.008 2	0.983 3	1.30×10^-23	9.08×10^-24