Quantitative analysis method for the time lag effect of rainfall-reservoir water level-landslide deformation

doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2025.20250147

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the challenge of accurately and quantitatively determining the time lag effect of reservoir bank landslide deformation under the combined influence of rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations, this paper proposes a quantitative analysis method (MIC-SPA) integrating the maximum information coefficient (MIC) and set pair analysis (SPA). The MIC method is utilized to objectively quantify the contribution weights of rainfall and reservoir water level to landslide deformation. Simultaneously, based on SPA, the “identity-discrepancy-contrary” connection degree between rainfall-reservoir water level trends and landslide deformation is evaluated. By incorporating the weight coefficients and connection degree coefficients into a linear regression formula, a lagged regression equation is established, thereby achieving quantitative analysis of the time lag effect. The proposed method is applied to a case study of a landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Results show that the contribution weights of reservoir water level and rainfall to landslide deformation are 0.537 and 0.463, respectively. Furthermore, analysis reveals that during rapid reservoir drawdown (>0.6 m/d), the lag periods for deformation at the landslide's front, middle, and rear sections are 5~6 days, 2~3 days, and 1 day, respectively, achieving precise zonal time lag analysis. Validation through comparison with the acceleration deformation phases identified by the modified tangent angle method demonstrates that the lag durations derived from this method align with the acceleration dates of deformation. The proposed approach provides scientific guidance for landslide hazard prediction.

Key words: reservoir bank landslide, rainfall, reservoir water level, maximum information coefficient, set pair analysis, time lag effect

CLC Number:

P237

Feifei TANG, Junzhe ZHOU, Changhan WANG, Jianyun WANG, Yutao ZHOU, Yafei HAO. Quantitative analysis method for the time lag effect of rainfall-reservoir water level-landslide deformation[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2025, 54(9): 1687-1696.

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滑坡状态	库水位状态			累积降雨状态
滑坡状态	上升	稳定	下降	上升	稳定	下降
上升	反	异	同	同	异	反
稳定	异	同	异	异	同	异
下降	同	异	反	反	异	同

类别	库水位波动速率/（m/d）	位移速率/（mm/d）	月累积降雨增加量/mm
下降→稳定	－0.26	－0.3	3.1
稳定→上升	0.275	0.3	12.5

滑坡分区	监测点	库水位下降速率V/（m/d）	滞后天数/d
前缘	GNSS01	V≤0.45	10～11
		0.45<V≤0.6	7
		0.6<V	5
	GNSS02	V≤0.45	10～11
		0.45<V≤0.6	9
		0.6<V	5
	GNSS03	V≤0.45	10～12
		0.45<V≤0.6	8
		0.6<V	6
中部	GNSS04	V≤0.45	6～7
		0.45<V≤0.6	3
		0.6<V	2
	GNSS05	V≤0.45	5
		0.45<V≤0.6	4
		0.6<V	2
	GNSS06	V≤0.45	5～6
		0.45<V≤0.6	3
		0.6<V	3
后部	GNSS07	V≤0.45	3～4
		0.45<V≤0.6	2
		0.6<V	1
	GNSS08	V≤0.45	3
		0.45<V≤0.6	2
		0.6<V	1